I think the irony of this is that probably people in 1920s felt that the world is tantalizingly close to a major breakthrough… We do not know what would have happened if WWII had not broken out*…
Which points to the perspective that there are many strong forces that could potentially derail things / halt the socio-technological development: geopolitics, climate change, social unrests, etc., etc…
I agree that we seem to be close to the realization of the possibility, but the last ‘few’ percents of the road may be the hardest ones… I’d highly recommend Chapter One "Predicting the Age of Post A Human Intelligences by Ted Goertzel and Ben Goertzel of The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity for an analysis of the scientific futurism in the context of AGI…